I said it last week, the Lions are going to win two games this year. Sunday against  Tampa Bay is one of them.

On paper that seems unlikely. The Bucs have the NFL's ninth-ranked offense, No. 5 defense and are fourth in the league in time of possession, and area where the Lions struggle. But I think Tampa will sorely miss leading rusher Earnest Graham and the Lions, under Daunte Culpepper, will cover the eight points and do just enough to beat the Bucs, 23-20.

Now onto the rest of my picks. All choices are against the spread and home teams are in caps.

Home covers you can't deny
CLEVELAND minus-3 over Houston
TENNESSEE minus-5 1/2 over NJ Jets
DALLAS minus-9 1/2 over San Francisco
JACKSONVILLE minus-2 1/2 over Minnesota
ATLANTA minus-1 over Carolina
DENVER minus-9 over Oakland
SAN DIEGO minus-2 1/2 over Indianapolis
NEW ORLEANS minus 2 1/2 over Green Bay (Monday night)

Home dogs that bite
KANSAS CITY plus-3 over Buffalo

Road warriors (mostly) laying with love
Washington minus-3 over SEATTLE
NY Giants minus-3 over ARIZONA
New England pick over MIAMI
Chicago minus-8 over ST. LOUIS

Don't need 'em, but I'll take 'em
Philadelphia plus-1 1/2 over BALTIMORE

Record: 9-6 last week, 75-78-3 overall