A few weeks ago I predicted the Lions would win two games this year -- home games against Jacksonville and Minnesota. I still think they'll manage a couple wins in the second half of the season, but I don't think today's game will be one of them. The Jaguars aren't playing well right now, but they lost to previously winless Cincinnati last week and according to STATS if they lose this week it will mark the first time in NFL history a team has dropped back-to-back games to winless teams this late in the season. History is against them.

 

At 6 1/2 points, though, I will take the Lions to cover in what should be Daunte Culpepper's team debut. I'd expect a rusty performance out of the quarterback who's been out of the league all year, but with just enough flash -- and just enough Kevin Smith -- to keep the game close. I'll go Jacksonville 23, Detroit 20 in another heartbreaker.

 

Now for the rest of my picks. As always, choices are against the spread and home team is in all caps.

 

Home favorites you can't deny

MIAMI minus-8 over Seattle

MINNESOTA minus-2 1/2 over Green Bay

SAN DIEGO minus-15 over Kansas City

PITTSBURGH minus-4 1/2 over Indianapolis

PHILADELPHIA minus-3 over NY Giants

HOUSTON pick over Baltimore

 

Road warriors laying with love

Tennessee minus-3 over CHICAGO

Carolina minus-9 1/2 vs. OAKLAND

 

Road dogs that bite

Buffalo plus-3 1/2 over NEW ENGLAND

New Orleans plus-1 over ATLANTA

 

Points only please

St. Louis plus-9 over NY JETS

San Francisco plus-9 1/2 over ARIZONA

 

Record: 7-7 last week, 64-62-3 overall