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5/29/2007

Money lines

I spent the weekend in Las Vegas for a bachelor party where I did a little work-related research for the upcoming college football and basketball seasons. OK, so maybe it wasn't totally work-related, but here's what I discovered:

Your late-May favorites to win the NCAA tournament next year, according to the Las Vegas Hilton, are North Carolina and UCLA. Neither is much of a surprise. The Tar Heels lose Brandon Wright and Reyshawn Terry off last year's Elite Eight, but went about 12 deep last year and, assuming they win the ACC, won't have to leave the state of North Carolina until the Final Four (first- and second-round games are in Raleigh, the East regional in Charlotte). UCLA lost its best player in Arron Afflalo, but adds one of the nation's best preps (Kevin Love) to a core that's been to two straight Final Fours. Both teams have 7/1 odds, low enough that if you're thinking of playing a few futures bets you can cover your behind with one of the favorites. Personally, North Carolina's my early choice.

Memphis (8/1) was the only other school inside 10/1, and Louisville (10/1) is No. 4 on the oddsmakers' board. There's plenty of value elsewhere, including three Big Ten teams - Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State - at 30/1. I like both MSU and Indiana next year as both teams return the bulk of their lineups, add good freshmen classes, and in MSU's case could have a favorable tournament draw that includes a regional date at Ford Field. Further down but worth a look are Syracuse and Villanova (40/1), UConn (50/1), Maryland (75/1) and North Carolina State, which played well at the end of the season, could benefit from a North Carolina-like homecourt scenario and is worth a flyer at 100/1.

In college football, USC (5/2), Florida (8/1) and Michigan (8/1) are not surprisingly the favorites three months before the season. In some form, they'll be the top three teams when I put my AP vote together later this summer, and I fully expect two of them to square off in the Superdome Jan. 8 in the BCS title game. You'd find better odds, of course, playing the rest of the field. LSU and West Virginia, my other probable top-five teams, come in at 10/1, and deeper discounts can be had with Arkansas and Virginia Tech (both 30/1), Tennessee (50/1) and Cal, my 60/1 darkhorse for the year with home games against the Vols and Trojans. If you're looking for a non-BCS team with the best chance at going undefeated, Hawaii is 300/1, but like Boise State last year the Warriors'll be hard-pressed to reach the title game.

In case you're wondering, Michigan basketball is only 100/1 to win the title, while MSU football is part of the "field" bet with the same odds. Seems the oddsmakers believe in John Beilein's magic, but not Mark Dantonio's.

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